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With the upcoming release of the “Moneyball” movie, I have noticed quite a bit of noise on the radio talking about how moneyball doesn’t work.  They say “look at the A’s now”, or “they A’s didn’t win the World Series with moneyball so it doesn’t work”.  That is usually followed by a demand for the A’s to spend more money.   What these morons don’t know is the true meaning of money ball.  Most of them didn’t read the book so they have no idea what it truly is.  They just have the regurgitated quotes and don’t know the full system.  I routinely take part in my fantasy smack talk section in all of my leagues and this topic was recently brought up.  This was the last straw for me.  I can’t stand by and let a bunch of people talk about the moneyball system when they don’t have a clue as to how it really works.

So, here is an excerpt from my smack talk section in one of my leagues in response to a manager basically saying that money ball doesn’t work:

Nobody disputes Billy Beane’s ability to find talent. The moneyball argument is a different story though. I’ve been hearing a lot on the radio about how moneyball doesn’t work and the current A’s are proof of it. The movie is coming out too late, blah blah blah. To be honest, money ball does work when you do it properly. The A’s haven’t been playing moneyball since they traded away Hudson and Mulder. That is when the A’s began a reverse model of moneyball and became the team that other teams target in trades.

For years Beane had been drafting young talent and trading them away before their flaws could be brought to light. Getting players like Ted Lilly, Jermaine Dye, Mark Ellis and Johny Damon to name a few. They traded away a bunch of garbage to get them, coupled with some serious homegrown pitching talent and two great at the time players in Giambi and Tejada and that is how the A’s stayed competitive year in and year out. When their players got too expensive they let them walk and took the draft compensation picks and started the whole process over again.

Now, the A’s seem to trade away their talented players for unproven prospects (the exact opposite of what they were doing when moneyball worked for them), Haren, Hudson, Mulder (that one was a wash), Swisher, Ziegler and so on. As a believer in true moneyball, it is extremely frustrating seeing this happen. For years the A’s found players that were overlooked by most and were able to use certain stats to find diamonds in the rough.

Now, the big money clubs use money ball strategies to locate the great all around players that also have the moneyball stats which is always better than a diamond in the rough because these particular diamonds are already polished and have a much higher carat and quality.

I am sooo happy that the A’s didn’t go nuts at the deadline and trade away all of our guys. Willingham is believed to be a type A free agent (not my opinion but I have read it multiple times) which will garner 2 picks next year, Coco, Matsui and DeJesus (maybe) are type B guys that will get us 1 pick each. This is the money ball system that started it all. With Michael Taylor having a bounce back year in AAA, Michael Choice and Grant Green on the horizon, Chris Carter still up in the air (I believe he just needs consistent ABs to start contributing) and our pitching staff and ability to find pitchers anywhere, the A’s will be competitive in the near future with the original formula of Quality SPin + good positional talent + prospects to trade for better proven talent = moneyball.

As for the ownership group not spending any $, I agree. They look at this as a business they can put minimal $ into and still make a cool $20-30 mil a year but that is only after the revenue sharing comes into play. The A’s have the third lowest projected ROI this year. Some owners feel you need to put money in before you see a return, Like Walter Haas and his family when they owned the A’s and were signing players to record contracts every year. Wolfe and Fisher are the 4th richest ownership group in baseball but would rather see a guaranteed ROI instead of trying to grow the A’s into a financially stable unit.

Who knows, maybe with a new ball park and the revenue it would bring to the club the owners might be able to put more $ into the organization. I’m not completely sold on that being the answer but I would love to see it happen. Especially if they went to San Jose with a much larger market.

Then all we need is for Mark Cuban to buy the A’s so we would have a fan who knows business as an owner instead of a businessman who knows nothing about being a fan.

Ok, so I’m pretty sure there have been multiple Major League players named Jesus before, but none that come with the anticipation that Jesus Montero does.  And no way do I think he will have anywhere near the impact that the original Jesus had.  He might not be able to turn water into wine, heal the sick or open up the gates of heaven to all of us but, he should turn fastballs into hits, heal the Yankee DH ailments and open up the flood gates to the waiver wire.

If you own Brian McCann or you are in a keeper league you want to go pick up Montero immediately.  I was stuck with adding J.P. Arencibia when McCann went down in my keeper league and quickly scooped up Montero in anticipation so it was a double win for me.  Montero is said to be bored with Triple-A since he wasn’t called up already.  This sounds like a cop out to me.  He is struggling as a lot of minor league players do but he isn’t having a terrible year.  The Yankees need major help at DH and now is the time for the call up.

Russell Martin has fallen back down to earth and the Yanks realize that Jorge Posada is pretty much done.  By inserting Montero into the DH slot while allowing him to catch a few games a week, the Yanks will make their team this year and next a much better all around team.  Martin most likely won’t be back next season and the Yanks want to see what Montero can do behind the plate before committing to him full time next year.  Theya have the lineup to allow a young player to develop in the majors as opposed to figuring out how to catch in the minors and they will take advantage of it real soon.

Posada is garbage and will lose significant playing time to Montero now.  Martin is still good defensively but just can’t hit.  Montero solves both offensive problems and will learn from Martin and Girardi how to be a Major League catcher, or at least a passable one.

It is that time of year again where clubs decide whether or not they feel they can compete going forward his year.  I don’t always agree with GMs trading valuable players this year for prospects down the road.  It just doesn’t always make sense.  Take the Oakland A’s and the San Diego Padres for example.  They both have players that are coveted by other GMS and could be big dealers at the deadline this year.

The Padres are rumored to be talking about trading Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Harang and Chad Qualls.  The A’s have Coco Crisp, Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui, Brian Fuentes, Rich Harden, Grant Balfour, Brad Ziegler, David DeJesus, and Andrew Bailey.  Now, all of these players are available since both the Padres and the A’s are out of the running for the playoffs.  But, can any of these guys bring back the type of return that these clubs are looking for?

I’ll start with the Padres and their needs for the future.  I don’t see anyone overpaying for Qualls, Ludwick or Harang.  The type of prospects they could get in return probably aren’t really considered true prospects.  However, Ludwick and Qualls won’t be back next year and won’t be offered arbitration so the Padres might want to save some cash this year by dealing them for warm bodies.  Harang could be a nice piece for the Padres to have in their rotation next year and might be worth resigning unless they can get some good value for him.

Bell and Adams are different stories however and the Padres are sitting pretty when it comes to them.  Bell is a free agent at the end of the year and that usually signals a time for change.  Adams is under team control next season and both are the two best relievers on the market.  Control over Adams makes him less likely to be dealt since it would take a ton of talent in return for the Padres to let him go.  Plus, if they trade Bell, Adams would step in as closer.  Bell, on the other hand would garner a pile of talent in return but teams like the Rangers seem to be balking at the Padres asking price.

If you are the Padres’ GM, you have to be loving this situation right now.  Bell has said that he wants to stay in San Diego.  The Padres feel that they can resign him at the end of the season for a discount.  That is one reason for the Padres to hold out until they reach a deal that they like with another club.  They could also keep Bell and offer him arbitration.  That would give them an opportunity to work out a long term deal with the fan favorite.  If they can’t work out a deal and Bell leaves as a free agent, the Padres would get two drat picks for Bell since he would be a Type-A free agent.  Those draft picks would most likely be around 20 and 40 overall in the draft.  Since they have this flexibility they could easily ask for prospects with that type of value.  Do the Rangers want to pay that kind of price for a two month rental?  Maybe since they could do the same and offer Bell arbitration but without the comfort of a possible less than market value long term deal available and the uncertainty of Bell being the Rangers closer.  He has stated that he is willing to setup this year but wants to close next year.

The A’s are way out of the race too and have plenty of free agents to be that could be moved.  Crisp, DeJesus, Matsui, Harden and Fuentes are not Type-A guys and wouldn’t be offered arbitration so those are guys that could be moved for future value and money savings.  Willingham has been reported as being a possible Type-A free agent (although I don’t see it that way) and would absolutely be offered arbitration so the A’s could receive the two compensation picks in return.  He is also their most valuable trade chip but won’t garner the value in trade that the A’s would receive by keeping him.  Bailey is a stud and would cost any team a high end prospect or two.  With that said, there is a very slim chance of him moving.  Billy Beane has already said that he will not trade players for warm bodies so it looks as though the most of the guys on the A’s won’t be moved.

If I were the Padres, I’d keep Bell and Adams unless I got an absolute steal of a deal for either of them.  Qualls, Harang and Ludwick would go to the highest bidder.  As for the A’s (and I am a born and raised fan) I would purge the bullpen, keeping only Balfour and Bailey.  I would also take whatever I could get for Crisp, Matsui, DeJesus and Harden.  I would keep Willingham though and press my luck with resigning him.  They need to have some offense next year and Willingham is a solid power threat.  The A’s have guys in the minors that need to be moved up.  Not so much because of their production in the minors but more of a need to see what they really have in those guys.  The last two months of a lost season sounds like the perfect time to experiment.

It seems as though everyone is looking for saves off the wire this time of year.  With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, there could be some current closers moving to another team into a setup role  or a closer role.  Either way, that means that somebody will need to step in and close for the departed player.  There are quite a few players that could be on the move, in line for a promotion or a demotion depending on who goes where.

Leo Nunez- Jack McKeon is not thrilled about the prospect of losing Nunez via trade but he has said that Edward Mujica would be next in line.  “He comes in and pretty much goes right after you,” McKeon said. “That’s part of being a good closer. He doesn’t get intimidated.”  Sounds like Mujica is a solid speculation add right about now and should be available in most leagues.

Heath Bell- He has been rumored to being traded for a while now so don’t be surprised if he moves.  Mike Adams is the obvious candidate to take over the closer duties.  Bell could close still depending on where he lands.  The Blue Jays are interested in him since they could use him at closer for the rest of the season and try to work out a long term contract with him.  Another option is  they could offer him arbitration and hope he accepts it or take the two draft picks if he doesn’t accept and signs with another club at the end of the year.  This would be great for Bell owners.  For more on the Bell situation read here.

Mike Adams- Here is another guy who has been rumored to be on the move also.  This trade seems unlikely though as most teams will scoff at the Padres’ asking price of two top 100 prospects since Adams would still be under team control next year.  But, if Adams is on the move, Luke Gregerson would be the most likely candidate to fill in with the off chance that Chad Qualls could get a shot if he himself isn’t traded.

Jason Isringhausen- The Mets have come out and said that they may not want to trade Izzy just yet since he could be a good mentor for Bobby Parnell, the team’s closer of the future.  Parnell would be a good stash in keeper leagues and a nice speculative add for August on.

Brandon League- This one I don’t really see happening simply because the Mariners really don’t have another option but David Pauley with the news that David Aardsma is now done for the season and most of next year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  I’d hold off on grabbing Pauley just yet until it looks more like League could be traded.

After breaking his hand in late May, Brett Lawrie has finally begun a rehab assignment.  He started in Single-A and it was made quite clear by Toronto brass that he would have to get his timing back in Triple-A before they would even consider calling him up to the Show.  Well, he has been promoted to Triple-A and now it is only a matter of time before we get to see him play for the big club.

I would assume that he would need at least three or four games to get his timing back but it could take more.  The truth of the matter is that the Jays don’t need him as much right now since Jose Bautista has moved back to 3B.  By the way, Bautista is set to return to the lineup at DH Tuesday against the Mariners so you don’t have to worry about him and his injured ankle too much if you own him.

What you do have to worry about is the fact that the Jays have found a pretty nice couple of players in the OF in Travis Snider and Eric Thames that clouds up the situation for Lawrie.  Add to that the current surge from Edwin Encarnacion at DH and you’ll find that Lawrie isn’t needed quite as much as he was last month.  Sure, E.E. probably won’t keep this up but what if he does?  He has been known to catch fire at the plate in the past.

Maybe Lawrie can slide back over to 2B and replace Aaron Hill but I doubt that will happen.  They could move Bautista back to RF but then you take away ABs from Snider and Thames who are both red hot and future pieces for the team.  The obvious conclusion here is that unless one of those guys cools off considerably, Lawrie probably won’t see time in the big leagues until the September roster expansion call ups.

Everyone knows San Diego’s going nowhere this year and that Heath Bell will be  a free agent at the end of this season.  This seems to have everyone believing that Bell will be on the move to another team by the July 31st trade deadline.  Most people believe that he will be used as a setup man with his new team and will lose most of his value in leagues that do not use holds as a category.  I say not so fast buddy to that.  There is no way you can get equal value for Bell at this juncture but it might worth holding on to him for the long haul.

If you look at the teams that are rumored to be in on the Bell sweepstake, Philly, Texas, L.A. Angels, St. Louis and the Yankees, only New York and Texas have a dominant shut down closer.  Yes, Ryan Madson and Jordan Walden have been quite impressive so far this year, but Walden is a rookie and Madson is a fill in closer.  You mean to tell me that Bell isn’t a better option than those two guys?  C’mon, Walden could easily go back to being a setup man (rookies tend to do what they are told and be fine with it) and Madson didn’t even get the closer role back immediately after returning from the DL.  If Bell goes to either of those two teams, he should be used as the closer.

The Cardinals would instantly place Bell in the closer role if they got him so we don’t need to discuss them.  The Yankees have Mariano Rivera but he has been slowed by a triceps strain lately and could use the rest that Bell could provide out of a setup/closer role.  He wouldn’t be the full time closer but he could steal a few from MO the rest of the season and the Yanks have the money to resign him for their future closer role once Mo hangs up his cleats..

Texas has Neftali Feliz who is a stud but he has an injury history and Bell would be a nice piece to fill in if/when Feliz heads back to the DL or if he needs a rest.  Bell’s numbers are actually better than Feliz’s this year and also, remember when Feliz was supposed to be  a starter but was forced into the closer role?  Trading for Bell would give the Rangers an opportunity to resign him and move Feliz back to the rotation if they so chose to.  Or, Bell could setup and close on Feliz’s days off.

The Padres know that they won’t get market value for Bell and that may lead them to keeping him and trying to resign him at a hometown discount.  Bell has said multiple times that he would take a discount to stay in S.D.  The Padres could also offer him arbitration and keep him for one more year and go through all of this again next year.  He won’t bring them the hitting prospects that they need since he is only a 2 month rental so, they might be better off keeping hima gambling on him accepting arbitration or declining arbitration and signing with another team thus guaranteeing the Padres a compensatory pick in next years draft.  That draft pick will most likely hold more value than the level of prospect they could get in return for a trade this year.

The bottom line here is that if you own Bell in your league, you are better off keeping him (unless someone is dumb enough to give you full value for him) and hoping he ends up somewhere he can still close.  I have him in one of my leagues and will be holding on tight to him for the rest of the season.

The Los Angeles Angels have finally decided to call up number 1 ranked prospect, Mike Trout.  If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, go pick him up right now if you don’t already have him stashed on your roster.  This article can wait.

If you don’t know who Mike Trout is, you probably aren’t doing very well in your fantasy league this year.  He is a game changer.  He is a five tool player that will contribute in every possible fantasy category in any league.  He already has 28 SB this year in the minors and he will most likely be set free on the basepaths.  He hits for average and moderate power and will drive in and score multiple runs for your fantasy club going forward.

Trout has been compared to Mickey Mantle so far by a few Major League scouts and has been living up to it.  He has the potential to be one of the better players in the second half of the season and LA is the perfect place to showcase his talents.  He will be allowed to run the basepaths freely which is one of his biggest assets.  He will have a ton of chances at RBI and should be able to score a bunch of runs too.  This guy is the ultimate waiver pick up.  Use your waiver priority if you have to because he is worth it.

The downside here is that if Peter Bourjos is a quick healer and does not require a DL stint, Trout might be sent down after the All-Star break once Bourjos is fully healed.  Either way, if you have the roster spot availability to let him sit on your bench, by all means he is worthy of a pick up.

With the impending move of José Bautista back to third base, the Blue Jays are most likely going to take their sweet time with Brett Lawrie on the minor league DL.  This is good news for Bautista owners in dynasty or keeper leagues since it means that he will keep 3B eligibility for next year.  Not that his value takes a dip as just an outfielder but having that 3B next to his name makes it a lot easier on his owners.  Meanwhile, Lawrie still can’t grip a bat without pain.  The jays are now saying that it will be closer to August when Lawrie returns to live game action.  And that will most likely be in Triple-A since he will have some rust to knock off before he eventually gets the call.

Depending on your league and how competitive it is, you might want to think about using the roster spot on someone that will contribute consistently for the rest of the season.  I held onto Lawrie since I needed a 2B and was using a group of “hot hitters of the momen” to fill in until Lawrie made it to the bigs.  But, those fill in guys, after numerous add/drops, turned into Ty Wigginton, Michael Cuddyer and Danny Espinosa, three of the better options right now at 2B.  So, Lawrie became expendable.

It just made more sense to get a productive body on my roster since I now have major flexibility with positions.  I have no doubt that Lawrie will succeed in the majors this year, I’ll just have to wait until he gets a little closer to returning before I try to add him again later.

Former Houston Astros closer Brandon Lyon has returned from DL.  Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal since the Astros had replaced him with Mark Melancon, who has been on fire or should I say been putting out fires ever since Lyon hit the DL.  Usually when you have a stud closer hit the DL and another guy takes over and does the job well, the stud closer is slowly worked back into his original role as closer once he returns from the DL.  That is not the case here.

What we have here is a terrible closer coming back from the DL to slowly work his way back into the closer role, taking it away from a guy that came out of nowhere to dominate the ninth inning.  Astros manager Brad Mills had this to say about the situation, “We want to be able to do things the right way, and doing them the right way is being able to have veteran guys  at the end of the game that have success in doing that in the past, like Brandon has. But to put him back in that role right now … I think we need to ease him back in.”

Take from this what you will but, if saves are scarce in your league you might want to add Lyon just in case he does regain the closer role.  I wouldn’t drop anyone of value for him but, if you have a vacant or non-useful roster spot, why not add him and see if he can get you 10-15 saves the rest of the way?  He does have a three year, $15 million contract that the Astros will want to get the most value out of.