This is a list of players that are candidates for being a bust this year in relation to where they are being drafted and their expectations. This doesn’t mean they will be terrible. It just means that they are a just too expensive for my blood. I’ve done a lot of research involving age, previous stats, stat trending etc. Hopefulle this will help you avoid overpaying for a player that will most likely underachieve this year. First I will list the players followed by a brief explanation why I feel they will be a bust this year. (All ranks are according to Yahoo!)
Ian Kinsler (TEX)- He can’t stay healthy. If he could, he would be worth a 28 ranking but he has never been able to stay healthy. His numbers will be great when he is in the lineup but how often will that be the case?
Jason Heyward (ATL)- I know what you are thinking here but he is going way too early in drafts. He is currently ranked 44 overall after finishing last year ranked 108 overall. There is plenty of potential here but do you want to spend a 5th rd. pick on someone that with upside? If you can get him in the 6th or 7th round I can see making that move but I wouldn’t take him any earlier unless this is a keeper league. I expect him to put up similar numbers this year possibly breaking into the top 100 by year’s end.
David Price (TB)- Do we really believe that Price is the next Johan Santana? He is currently ranked 66 overall and that is largely based on his 2010 season stats. What you should be looking at is his post All-Star break stats from last year. That will be a better starting point for figuring out what to expect from him. Don’t get me wrong, his post All-Star numbers were very good but his pre All-Star numbers were ridiculous and unsustainable. Maybe I’m wrong but I seriously doubt he will repeat his numbers from las season.
Jeremy Hellickson (TB)- Ranked 186. We’ve all seen this before with TB pitchers. Just look at Price and how he came late in the season of ’08 and lit it up followed by an ’09 season of 4.42 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Same with Wade Davis where he came up in late ’09 followed by a 4.07 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In fact, if you follow the TB trend here you should be targeting Davis this year for a breakout season. But, that is for another article that will be coming out soon.
Austin Jackson (DET)- Ranked 203. If you were lucky enough to watch Tony Gwynn Sr. take batting practice when he was an active player, you would have been amazed at how he worked the entire field on command. He could hit any pitch to any part of the field he wanted to and would do an entire routine hitting to different sections of the field. Jackson is not Gwynn by any means so his absurd BABIP from last year will fall dramatically this year resulting in his BA plummeting as well as his OBP. 203 is not a great ranking at all but his numbers will drop this year so don’t be the guy that reaches for him.